Rut Kotlyarevskiy

Rut Kotlyarevskiy

@heavysnake222876 · Jan 12, 2026

I fact-checked "AI 2041" predictions from 2021. Here's what Kai-Fu Lee got right and wrong.

Been on an AI book kick lately. Picked up *AI 2041* by Kai-Fu Lee and Chen Qiufan—it came out in 2021, before ChatGPT launched. Wanted to see how the predictions held up.
**Quick background:** Lee was president of Google China and is a major AI investor. Chen is an award-winning Chinese sci-fi author. The format is interesting—each chapter has a sci-fi story set in 2041, then Lee follows with technical analysis.
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## My Scorecard
### ✅ Got It Right
- **Deepfake explosion** — Predicted massive growth. Reality: 500K in 2023 → 8M in 2025 (900% annual growth)
- **Education AI** — Predicted personalized learning would go mainstream. Reality: 57% of universities now prioritizing AI
- **Voice cloning** — Predicted it would become trivially easy. Reality: seconds of audio now creates convincing clones
- **Insurance AI** — Predicted deep learning would transform insurance pricing. Reality: happening now
- **Job displacement pattern** — Predicted gradual change hitting specific sectors first. Reality: exactly what we're seeing
### ❌ Got It Wrong
- **AGI timeline** — Lee was skeptical it would come soon. Industry leaders now say 2026-2028.
- **Autonomous vehicles** — Book suggested faster a