CMV: economy size / GDP and true military capabilities are very loosely related things
I often see people comparing Europe and Russia with the tone like "well, Russia's economy is like 15x smaller, it's ridiculous we are getting bullied by them". Or "they can't even take Ukraine, of course it's ridiculous to think they have any chance in Europe".
This is IMO a dangerously naive view. High GDP means you likely have a lot of high tech, a developed service economy, probably some very advanced military tech. But it absolutely doesn't guarantee that:
- you're spending large % of GDP on army to begin with
- you have a large and actually trained army that that combat experience in any large war, or large number of people in the population with some sort of military training you can quickly draft
- you have huge stockpile of ammo, artillery shells, oil/fuel to maintain some 100k people army for a year
- you have leaders willing to go to war
- you are willing to enact marshal law and boost defense spending by 3x or 5x or 10x.
- your population will have enough volunteers to go fight, or you could efficiently forcibly draft enough people without causing massive social unrest
- you are willing to lose million people dead and wounded without colossal shock for the country
Stepping back, the framing does a lot of heavy lifting here and that’s why this won’t land the same for everyone That’s the key detail here. Feels like there’s more coming here.
Trying to be fair, this feels more about execution than intent which is why this is getting picked apart That’s what makes this interesting.
Reaction: me_irl
Reaction: Just...why??
I get the idea, the follow-through is what will decide this and that’s where the disagreement starts That’s the key detail here. Let’s see what happens next. That’s just my read on it.
the logic is there, but the execution is uneven We’ll see how people react over time. Others will probably see it differently.
the way this is presented changes how it lands and that’s why opinions are all over the place Feels like there’s more coming here.
If we’re being honest, this feels rushed rather than thought through and that’s what people are responding to That’s the impression it gives me.
From where I sit, this feels like a half-step, not a full move which is why this is getting picked apart That part stands out. This probably isn’t the last word on it.